Wednesday, August 19, 2009

GDP growth 2009-2010 for global markets

IMF world economic outlook shows forecast for GDP growth in 2009 and 2010. This is mid year forecast released on July 2009. I picked major developed and emerging countries. There is similar picture for most of them with forecast for 2009 with negative GDP growth. Only China and India are expected to post decent growth. But for the year 2010 IMF prediction is positive for all of them except Germany where outlook is still slightly negative with GDP contraction of -0,6.

I made quick fundamental analysis for international markets by using PEG indicator . Basically it explains markets / stocks value taking into consideration P/E valuation and estimated growth. In case of world economies it is forecast for GDP growth 2010. As small as PEG is, the country / stocks has better value.

From the analysis BRIC emerging markets are with better value vs. developed economies. Last time I made similar analysis with P/E and GDP growth by using regional ETF the results were similar. But there was not such a big difference between expected growth in developed and emerging countries. Now IMF favors more emerging economies. We can make grouping where emerging markets are with the best value, North America & Japan somewhere in the middle and major European economies this time at the end of the ranking.


1 Response to "GDP growth 2009-2010 for global markets"

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