Thursday, June 25, 2009

Henry hub natural gas seasonality.

Natural gas usually follows closely crude oil prices. But the evolution of recent weeks argues against this statement. Main reasons for sharp decline in natural gas prices as well as crude oil prices in second half of 2008 were due to the economic slowdown and recession. In case of natural gas producers the output has not been decreased in similar way like for crude oil and increasing inventories caused still falling natural gas prices. But recent numbers shows lower inventory levels of natural gas and with the signs of economic recovery could be right time to become bullish with natural gas. In addition to that seasonality plays important role in price determination. Usually end of summer is start point for price rebound. The picture below shows price trends for natural gas prices in Henry hub from 2004 till 2009


source: Official Nebraska Government website

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