Sunday, March 22, 2009

Healthcare isn´t always defense.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has more than 40% of their income from U.S.. The company produces virtually all categories of drugs and can be described as a direct competitor of companies such as Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Pfizer (PFE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Novartis (NVS) and Sanofi Aventis.

The most important segment in terms of sales is Respiratory. A key product is Seredite / Advair. Just this single drug is over 20% of total sales across the company GSK, which is impressive. It's however a big mess for the company GSK. Patent protection expires in the U.S. already for the year. In Europe and in 2013. This is, however, relatively soon.

Antiviral division has a broad portfolio of medicines. However it doesn't have such a commercial success as Respiratory. Here are 4 interesting products. HIV does not make only one product, but a group of drugs to combat this malicious virus. The treatment of this disease through GSK collects £ 1.5 billion a year.

Epzicom (Kivexa) is a solid promise for the future. It makes a turnover approaching £ 0.5 billion and patent will expire in 2016 (2019 in the EU). Combivir is intended to cure, with the exclusivity with GSK will have over 3 years. Trizivir is good potential for growth.

Other medicines relatively soon lose their patent. For the revenue, it is interesting only billions Valtrex, which sells very well in the U.S., where he as well as the patent expires in Europe.

Division of Central Nervous System (CNS) is a portfolio predominantly commercially successful drugs. Lamictal sales is almost at 1 billion GBP. But unfortunately, the wrong signal is limited license close to expiry. Imigran (Imitrex), Seroxat (Paxil), Requip and Wellbutrin constitute about 10% of sales across the company. Unfortunately, all medicines have limited license sales and a radical decline. Treximet is the future of medicine.

For GSK is apparently inspired by the Pfizer, whose business is mainly in the treatment of cardiovascular diseases. Division Cardiovascular and Urogenital has huge potential for the future. Medicines with expired licenses is only a small proportion of the group. The rest can generate profits at least 15 years.

Division of Metabolic not for subsequent years, the best prospects. In three years, expiring licenses to all existing drugs in this group. The total share of our company is about 6%. In the next 2 years could grow to 10% off. Important for the company is product AVANDIA and its modifications.

Combating bacteria in division Anti-bacterials is not significant. While Augmentin is a medicine in decline, Altabax is in front of the future. Revenues from Augmentinu has absolutely not decline the year, so it's again up to the pressure to earn Altabax began immediately.

Oncology and Emesis is difficult to, because in this sector number one is Genentech. It's seen in the overall share of the sales company. Tykerb is the only promise that could go up this division in the future.

In division Vaccines revolves over £ 2.5 billion a year. Most of the money is not protected by a patent. Those have a very likeable distance expiration. Interesting in this division is that it is commercially successful in the EU than in the U.S., which certainly is related to the health care system in general.


There is strong competition in two key markets (U.S. and EU). The potential of emerging markets is undoubtedly greater. Analysts usually predict profit growth of the company below 10% for the next 5 years. It is usually around 6% p. a. Taking into account number and significance of expiring patents, this will be very hard to be achieved.


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