Tuesday, July 28, 2009

S&P 500 with P/E 13. Still 26% below 50 years average.

For the first time during last 2 years U.S. analysts raise earnings estimates of companies in the index, Standard and Poor's 500. Last time when analysts were so bullish was on April 2007 - before the outbreaks of largest global recession since the end of the 2nd World War II, and total writedowns due to subprime losses reached 1.5 bil. USD.

There have been some positive surprises. Particularly profits in Q2 of firm Goldman Sachs (GS) or tripling sales of raw materials at Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold (FCX), which has led to the higher projections for 2010. The estimates of Wall Street firms show earnings for next year at $ 74.55 per share, compared to $ 72.54 in May this year. Shares are now trading at 13.13 times estimated ratio of earnings, which is about 26% below five decades average of 16.54.

Estimates indicate that corporate profits SP 500 index companies will grow by 25% from $59.80 per share, which would be the biggest growth since 1995. Revisions are indeed real and quick view of the fact that people are becoming more or less optimistic. The earnings for Q2 indicate that there may be even faster change. 204 companies of SP 500 have issued its balance and 75% of them were able to overcome the market consensus. So far, the highest number was 72.3% in 1993.

For example estimates for the company Goldman Sachs have evolved significant changes. Profit for the year 2010 may be raised to $16.19 per share, almost three times the minimum $ 5.90 per share in March this year. The bank is trading at 10.17 times the projection of next year. This is approximately 63% discount against the times 37.73 times used in the past 12 months, and even after the shares rose about 95% this year.

Another suitable example is the world's largest semiconductor manufacturer Intel Corp. Company doubled profit for Q2, than was designed, in particular as a result of improved computer demand in Asia. Analysts and increase their profit estimates for 2010 to the level of $1.08 per share, a 21% increase. Shares of Intel, however, reached a 10-month maximum, and increased by 32% this year. Intel traded as a multiple of 17.93 times earnings next year, it is about 36% less than the average of the last decade with number 28.13.


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