Emerging markets vs. Developed markets.

Let's see quick comparison between emerging markets and developed economies. I used ETF as a tool. IShares MSCI EAFA (EFA) as a benchmark for international stocks from developed economies. And IShares MSCI E.M.I.F. (EEM) for emerging markets. You can see there is only slight difference in P/E valuation.

P/E ratio:
EFA 11,5
EEM 12,8

Someone can say EEM is not real ETF to measure emerging market performance. That's partially true. More than half (53%) holdings are listed on US markets as ADR. In addition to that big share is from already developed countries like South Korea, Taiwan.


The important thing is to compare EPS growth. From attached chart you can see that estimated earnings growth for 2008 is by 4,6 % faster than for EFA. Moreover both ETF are traded currently with premium against NAV. EFA -0,48% and EEM -0,70%.

How to invest in crude oil (with ETF).

Crude oil is reaching $120 and discussions about what is target price are becoming topic number one. In this post let me provide you comparison of the most liquid ETF underlying crude oil futures or companies from oil industry.


As you can see on year-to-year basis the leader is Claymore MACROshares Oil Up Tradeable Shares (UCR). This is a bit complicated structure for price valuation. But basically it consists of shares of the MacroShares Oil Up Holding Trust. And income reflects trading and settlement with futures contracts.

The laggard is Proshares UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG). But this ETF is underlying (going short) companies like Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Conoco Philips (COP) and others. This price drop is more likely triggered by good performance of oil companies rather than rising crude oil prices.

As a bonus you have here video tutor how to trade crude oil with technical analysis.

M&A - Internet companies.

Acquisition case Microsoft (MSFT) vs. Yahoo (YHOO) is still open. But there is a hot news today related surprisingly to Czech internet world. Microsoft negotiates with the biggest Czech internet portal and search engine Seznam.cz . This is still not official but rumours released today in Czech press. This would make already second big acquisition on Czech internet. Month ago Warburg Pincus merged 2nd and 3rd biggest internet portal (Seznam and Atlas).

Next FED rate decision ahead.

Monday:
Economic NA

Earnings BE Aerospace (BEAV), Humuna (HUM), Sohu (SOHU), Tyson (TSN), Verizon (VZ), Covance (CVD), FMC Tech (FTI), Atheros (ATHR), Manitowoc (MTW), GFI Group (GFIG), Visa (V)

Tuesday:
Economic Consumer Confidence (62)

Earnings Archer D (ADM), AGCO (AG), Boyd (BYD), Burlington (BNI), MasterCard (MA), Nexen (NXY), Office Depot (ODP), Sepracor (SEPR), RTI Metals (RTI), US Steel (X), Under Armour (UA), Valero (VLO), Waste Mgt (WMI), Express Scripts (ESRX), Flextronics (FLEX), General Cable (BGC), Lan Air (LFL), LandAmerica (LFG), OpenText (OTEX), O’Seas Ship (OSG), Panera (PNRA)

Wednesday:
Economic Weekly Crude, ADP (-55K), GDP & Deflator (.4%, 3.0%), Employ Cost (.8%), FOMC

Earnings Alcatel Lu (ALU), Brinks (BCO), Cummins (CMI), First Solar (FSLR), Garmin (GRMN), Gen Motors (GM), Hess (HES), InterActive (IACI), Procter G (PG), SAP (SAP), Southern (SO), Time Warner (TWX), Akamai (AKAM), Centex (CTX), Genco Ship (GNK), iRobot (IRBT), JDSU (JDSU), Prudential (PRU), Starbucks (SBUX), Symantec (SYMC)

Thursday:
Economic Weekly Claims, Auto / Truck (5.1M, 6.3M), Inc & Spend (.4%, .2%), PCE Core (.1%), Construction (-.5%), ISM (48)

Earnings Apache (APA), CIGNA (CI), Comcast (CMCSA), CVS (CVS), Kodak (EK), Exxon (XOM), Invest Tech (ITG), Oshkosh (OSK), Tyco (TYC), West Pharma (WST), Bankrate (RATE), Blue Phoenix (BPHX), Cbeyond (CBEY), Cephalon (CEPH), Dynamic Mtls (BOOM), Investools (SWIM), Nat Fuel (NFG), QLogic (QLGC), Sun Micro (SUNW), Walter (WLT), Wynn (WYNN), Websense (WBSN)

Friday:
Economic Michigan (64.2), Jobs Report (-80K, 5.2%, .3%), Factory O’s (.4%)

Earnings Agrium (AGU), Barnes (B), Borg W (BWA), Chevron (CVX), Duke (DUK),Lubrizol (LZ), Nortel (NT), NW Nat Gas (NWN), Weyerhaeuser (WY)

ETF for CEE emerging markets.

Up to now you can find 2 ETF focused on emerging markets in Central and
Eastern Europe.

SPDR S&P Emerging Europe (GUR)
Central Europe & Russia Fund CEF (CEE)

Both with half holdings in Russia and the rest coming from Poland, Turkey, Czech Republic and Hungary. It's always very difficult for US investor to find investment instrument into Poland, Czech Republic or EU newcomers like Romania and Bulgaria.

But, there is a new ETF in the pipeline. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Eastern Europe Index Fund. Ishares filed prospect in the beginning of April (link on SEC.gov).

Finance Google vs. Finance Yahoo.

Google recently released Stock screener on its finance site. I've decided to test it and provide you my impression. Basically it's a scan for fundamental analysis. Comparing to the similar tool provided by Yahoo (basic screener) I have to say Google is slightly better.

Google's additional functionality which you can't find on Yahoo:
+ setting values instead of Yahoo's predefined number ranges
+ more growth indicators (net income, revenue)
+ margin indicators (EBITDA, gross, operating)
+ institutional holders
+ advanced dividend tracking
+ volume vs. average volume
+ 52 weeks low high change

Except those you can see so called "Company distribution" range. This gives you idea where your value is compared to rest of the market. I haven't found that as very helpful.


This was my brief evaluation of similar tools. But Yahoo on top of that provides Advanced stock screener. This Java based screener nullifies all insufficiency. And in my view it is much better. Especially I like predefined screener where you can choose for growth, value or dividend scan and further adjust according to your preferences.

* Links for screeners you can find on the left sidebar

Market Takes Toll on Nokia.

Nokia (NOK) reported a disappointing first quarter last week and blamed worldwide economic problems for its sudden reduction in the next year's forecast. The Finnish cell phone giant expects the market to fall in euro terms and, although the company did see profits in the first quarter, the average selling price per phone plummeted.

This unexpected turn for Nokia has been greatly attributed to the weakened U.S. dollar, the slowing of the U.S. economy and the possible slowing of the European economy. The company experienced its greatest intraday loss since 2005 when shares dropped 9.6 percent last week.



Nokia, the largest maker of cell phones in the world, is largely dependent on its European market. The possibility of economic struggle is what most concerns the company and last week's revelation seems to indicate that the European economy is indeed winding down.

Although the company optimistically referred to their handsets as a "necessity item," Nokia also expects per unit prices to lower even more. Although last year was the best for the stock since 1999 (it rose 71 percent), this year has seen a 20 percent drop so far. This week Motorola (MOT) and Samsung (SSNNF) will report their earnings, which should shed some more light on the global handset market.


By-line:

Heather Johnson is a freelance finance and economics writer, as well as a regular contributor for CurrencyTrading.net, a site for currency trading and forex trading information. Heather welcomes comments and freelancing job inquiries at her email address heatherjohnson2323@gmail.com .

Business Week. Focused on earnings.

Monday
Economic: NA
Earnings: Haliburton (HAL), Arch Coal (ACI), BofA (BAC), Weatherford (WFT), Novellus (NVLS), Netflix (NFLX), Texas Instruments (TXN), Vertex (VRTX)

Tuesday
Economic: Existing Home Sales (4.95M)
Earnings: AT&T (T), Coach (COH), DuPont (DD), CME (CME), McDonalds (MCD), Smith (SII), SunTrust (STI), UnitedHealth (UNH), USG (USG), Broadcom (BRCM), Cree (CREE), Invitrogen (IVGN), Yahoo (YHOO), YUM! Brands (YUM), VMware (VMW)

Wednesday
Economic: Weekly Crude
Earnings: Air Products (APD), Alleghany (ATI), Boeing (BA), EMC (EMC), Foundation Coal (FCL), Genzyme (GENZ), Moody’s (MCO), UPS (UPS), XTO (XTO), WellPoint (WLP), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Chipotle (CMG), Citrix (CTXS), Covanta (CVA), Nutrisystem (NTRI), Pulte (PHM), Qualcomm (QCOM), Terex (TEX), Xilinx (XLNX)

Thursday
Economic Weekly Claims (375K), New Home Sales (585K)
Earnings 3M (MMM), Aetna (AET), Altria (MO), Black & Decker (BDK), Bunge (BG), Conoco (COP), Hershey (HSY), Motorola (MOT), Newmont (NEM), Northrop (NOC), Potash (POT), T R Price (TROW), Taser (TASR), Zimmer (ZMH), American Express (AXP), Amgen (AMGN), Baidu (BIDU), CVR Rio (RIO), Deckers (DECK), Inter’A Brokers (IBKR), KLA Tencor (KLAC), Massey (MEE), MEMC (WFR), Microsoft (MSFT), SW Energy (SWN), Synaptics (SYNA), Varian Semi (VSEA), Western Digi (WDC)

Friday
Economic Michigan (64.2)
Earnings LM Ericsson (ERIC), Coventry (CVH), American Axle (AXL), Wendy’s (WEN)

Total subprime writedowns.

On the beginning of February I posted article about total credit market losses and write-downs (Total writedowns Feb 2008).

On this post I received comment from Cyrille from UK. He informed us about updated losses. Have a look to the progress within 2 months, total losses have deepened from 146 billion USD to 231 billion USD.

Data source: Bloomberg.

Company                 Writedown Credit l.   Total

UBS (UBS)                 38                     38
Merrill Lynch (MER)       25.1                   25.1
Citigroup (C)             21.4     2.5           23.9
HSBC (HBC)                 3       9.4           12.4
Morgan Stanley (MS)       11.7                   11.7
IKB Deutsche               9                      9
Bank of America (BAC       7.3     0.9            8.2
Deutsche Bank (DB)         7.4                    7.4
Credit Agricole (CRARF)    6.5                    6.5
Credit Suisse (CS)         6.3                    6.3
Washington Mutual (WM)     0.3     5.5            5.8
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)       2.9     2.1            5
Wachovia (WB)              2.9     2              4.9
Canadian Imperial (CIBC)   4                      4
Societe Generale (SCGLY)   3.8                    3.8
Mizuho Financial (MFG)     3.4                    3.4
Lehman Brothers  (LEH)     3.3                    3.3
Barclays (BCS)             3.2                    3.2
R. Bank of Scotland (RBS)  3.1                    3.1
Goldman Sachs (GS)         3                      3
Dresdner                   2.7                    2.7
Bear Stearns (BSC)         2.6                    2.6
ABN Amro (ABN)             2.4                    2.4
Fortis (FORSY)             2.3                    2.3
Natixis (NTXFF)            1.9                    1.9
HSH Nordbank               1.7                    1.7
Wells Fargo (WFC)          0.3     1.4            1.7
BNP Paribas  (BNP)         1.3     0.3            1.6
DZ Bank                    1.5                    1.5
National City (NCC)        0.4     1              1.4
Bank of China (BACHF)      1.3                    1.3
Bayerische Landesbank      1.3                    1.3
Caisse d'Epargne           1.3                    1.3
LB Baden-Wuerttemberg      1.3                    1.3
Nomura Holdings (NMR)      1                      1
Sumitomo Mitsui            1                      1
Gulf International         1                      1
other European banks       8.4                    8.4
other Asian banks          4       0.7            4.7
other Canadian banks       2.4     0.1            2.5

          ____          _____          _____

TOTALS*                   206     25.8          231.8

Tech stock technically.

This week was very good especially for tech companies. After good earnings results many tech stocks cross above resistance line. Look at the first chart. Technology sector SPDR ETF (XLK) as a benchmark for industry. ETF already tested resistance in the beginning of April. Today we can see breakout.


Second picture is for Research in Motion (RIMM) where shares cross resistance. And we are only 10% below all time high. Research in Motion has been very resistant during last half year turmoils.

Third is Microsoft (MSFT). There have been many news about Yahoo (YHOO) acquisition and MSFT lost all gains from last successful year. The chart shows 3 years and there is evident very strong support and resistance at $26. Also now this level has helped to bounce.

Last chart is for Apple (AAPL) with today's breakout at $160. This resistance and support have been formed during last 10 months.

Google and ComScore.

NASDAQ is up almost 3% dragged by positive sentiment in tech. All these happened after Google (GOOG) tops analyst estimates for Q1. And Google shares are high flying more than 20%. But there is something sad about the story. You remember recent statistics released by ComScore (SCOR). Reporting y-o-y 1,8% growth for paid clicks for Google. And Google's report shows 20% rise. Of course those are 2 different numbers as ComScore announced US paid clicks and Google's number is for global growth. But still this inconsistency is raising question Can you measure (predict) by ComScore?
Not really.

Internet recession? Paid clicks down again.

In March all major search engines were rapidly slowing in paid clicks. Data from ComScore shows results for major web companies:

Google (GOOG) up 2,7%
Yahoo (YHOO) down 3,1%
MSN (MSFT) down 15,1%
AOL (TWX) down 2,3%

As you can see especially for Microsoft's MSN March was horrible month. Google is winner but still well behind growth prospect. For Q1 Google's paid clicks are up by 1,8%. In January down 0,3%, February up 3,1%.

This makes me bit afraid of Google earnings call on Thursday. On the other site revenue estimates were cut dramatically from 40% to 25% US growth. To balance weakness in paid clicks Google needs strong increase in price per click.

Google assigned PR4 to my blog.

Yesterday I checked my google page rank and to my surprise I get PR 4. I think it has been assigned some time ago but I didn't check this for long time. Actually if you use some tool to check you google page rank you can get different results. On some tools I saw PR 3 and sometimes PR 4. The best way how to check your page rank is with Google toolbar integrated in Mozilla Firefox. I am very glad to have PR 4 and it has been already reflected in number of visitors coming from search engines.
Also I've tried to check which page rank StockWeb is heading to. And based on Google PR prediction tools is PR4 or PR5.

Business week. Corporate earnings.

Monday
Economic: Retail Sales (.1%, .2%), Biz’ Inv. (.4%)
Earnings: Eaton (ETN), Infosys (INFY)

Tuesday
Economic PPI & Core (.4%, .2%), Empire (-16.0)
Earnings Forest Labs (FRX), J & J (JNJ), M & T (MTB), State Street (STT), US Bancorp (USB), CSX (CSX), Intel (INTC), Seagate (STX), WaMu (WM)

Wednesday
Economic: Weekly Crude, CPI & Core (.3%, .2%), Housing & Bldg P’s (1.025M, 970K), IP & CU (-.1%, 80.4%), Fed’s Beige Book
Earnings: Coke (KO), Illinois Tool (ITW), Johnson Controls (JCI), JP Morgan (JPM), NO Ed & Tech (EDU), Wells Fargo (WFC), eBay (EBAY), Gilead (GILD), IBM (IBM)

Thursday
Economic: Weekly Claims (385K), Leading Indicators (.1%), Philly Fed (-14.0)
Earnings: Amphenol (APH), Bank of NY (BK), Cypress (CY), Danaher (DHR), Harley (HOG), Intl Game (IGT), Merrill (MER), Nokia (NOK), Sonoco (SON), Sunpower (SPWR), Nucor (NUE), United Tech (UTX), Cap One (COF), E*Trade (ETFC), Google (GOOG), Int’ Surgical (ISRG), SanDisk (SNDK), Stryker (SYK), Tempur-Pedic (TPX)

Friday
Economic: NA
Earnings: Amcol (ACO), Caterpillar (CAT), Citigroup (C), Honeywell (HON), Schlumberger (SLB), Wachovia (WB)

Ebay summary.

Incoming week we have earnings call Q1 scheduled for eBay (EBAY). As I posted recently (Google acquires Skype) share price was at 15 times cash flow which showed good buying opportunity. Stock price is up by 20% in last 3 weeks. But how about Q1?

Ebay has changed fee strategy, decrease insertion fees for sellers and increased fee from each sale. Based on 3rd party research this change helped sellers to increase sales by 10-20%.

GMV (Gross merchandise volume) is key indicator for Ebay. It's a percentage growth (year on year) for total value of sold goods in USD. Last GMV was just 12% compared to 20% one year ago. All fee changes could show better than expected GMV which is only around 10%.

The big pain of previous quarters, Skype, also is doing better. Last quarter with 76% revenue increase. Skype accounts 5% of total Ebay revenue.

PayPal has last quarter revenue growth by 35%. And the unit accounts more than 25% of total Ebay revenue.

Changes in fee model altogether with weak USD could drive eBay Q1 results upside.

Corporate earnings.

This hasn't been good start for earnings season Q1. Alcoa (AA) disappointed, UPS (UPS) reduced significantly first quarter estimates. And at the end of the week General Electric (GE) reported very bad quarter results and shares fall by 13%.

Coming week brings many interesting reports. You remember the same week for previous quarter was big disappointment. And there was only successful story with IBM (IBM). Which data I am interested in:

1. Earnings results for financial. J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Wachovia (WB) and Merrill Lynch (MER). This will give us answer to key question whether credit crisis deepens or is over. In my view this will be driver for stock markets in next week.

2. Earnings for big tech stocks. I'm bit afraid about Google (GOOG) to meet expectation. Ebay (EBAY) fee changes bring hope for good results. Also rivals Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD) will tell us if something has been changed among semiconductors. Other tech companies this week are IBM (IBM) and Nokia (NOK).

3. Earnings for large caps. Earnings call for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Coca Cola (KO) and Caterpillar (CAT).

Next week definitely corporate earnings will play major role on the stock markets.

Market share for search engine results.

Latest numbers from Nielsen show the best performing search engines. Google (GOOG) still increases market share and now is with 58,7%. But there is better progress with Yahoo (YHOO) that gained more than 1% compared to January report. Yahoo now stands with 19% market share.

Microsoft (MSFT) engine without interesting move. MSN 1 percent down to 11,2%. AOL half percent up to 5,2%.
The last engine with higher than 1% market share is Ask. Here we don't see any significant move. The share is 2,5%.

The biggest IPO on stock market.

Mining group New World Resources (NWR) share issue is coming to 3 European stock markets. Company intends to float shares on stock exchanges in London, Warsaw and Prague. IPO is expected during second quarter this year. 25 - 33% of shares should be listed and NWR seeks 300 mln EUR (analyst's top estimates are 1,4 bln EUR) from transaction. This would be the biggest IPO on Prague Stock Exchange in its history.
NWR Group owns OKD (black coal mining company) which is the biggest asset with 143 mln EUR net profit last year.

Earnings season starts up.

Monday
Economic Consumer Credit ($6.0B)
Earnings Alcoa (AA)

Tuesday
Economic Pending Homes (-.5%), FOMC Minutes
Earnings Chattem (CHTT), Sealy (ZZ)


Wednesday
Economic Weekly Crude, Wholesale Inv’s. (.5%)
Earnings Circuit City (CC), Progressive (PGR), Shaw (SGR), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)


Thursday
Economic Weekly Claims (380K), Trade Balance ($-57.4B)
Earnings FC Stone (FCSX), Pier One (PIR), WellCare (WCG), Genentech (DNA),

Friday
Economic Import / Export, Michigan (69.4)
Earnings Fastenal (FAST), General Electric (GE)

1st Anniversary as a blogger.

Exactly one year ago I started my StockWeb blog. And this was my first expepience with blogging. Up to now StockWeb is the only one active blog I maintain.

Let me have a look to this year. I've enjoyed blogging. I learnt a lot about SEO optimizing, how to get traffic, ads and affiliate programs. How to optimize and customize your Beta Blogger site. Special thanks to all bloggers providing hacks and tricks for New Blogspot.
I did many changes with my 3 column blogspot template which is originally based on Rounders Blogspot template.
StockWeb is currently with Google page rank 3. According to page rank prediction tool, blog is heading to get assigned 4 or 5 PR.

Another great benefit from blogging, you get to know bloggers with the same interest as you have. Let me list my favourite bloggers writing about economy, finance or stock markets.


The best economy blogs
Investment postcards
The big picture

The best option trading blog
OptionPundit

The best trader blogs
Phil stock world
Trading Goddess

Feedburner - Problems with feed ads.

Recently many bloggers are complaning about ads for RSS feed provided by Feedburner. Basically this is one of the best feed advertising model which is based on CPM. You as a FAN (Feedburner Ads Network) member receive offers for ads. And then you either approve or decline. Rates depend on topic you write about but financial or technology feeds are rewarded the most (Up to $10 for 1000 impressions).

Nevertheless as I pointed out in the beginning FAN ads shows some discontinuity. Publishers still receive offers but after acceptance ads are not displayed in their feed. Are these problems somehow connected with "feed CPC ads" tested by Google Adsense (Beta version)?

Forbes Blog Network - Update.

This is aggregated blog network which associates business and finance blogs. Members are reviewed and accepted directly by Forbes after application is submitted. Forbes also sends invitation directly to high quality blogs.

First official launch date was scheduled for January 2008. Two weeks ago all members received official announcement about Nick Ricci appointment as General Manager for network. At the same day information was released to the press.

In addition we received expected date for start up. Whithin 4 - 8 weeks from announcement which means on May.

Google acquires Skype.

This is the rumour coming to the market today. Actually this would be win win situation for both companies. Ebay (EBAY) struggled with huge writedown due to Skype. This service really doesn't fit to eBay portfolio. The idea of easy communication between sellers and buyers during auctions seemed a bit far-fetched.

On the other side Google (GOOG) has wide experience with all social networking applications and communication services. Skype could be another useful tool with easy integration to current Google services.

Ebay bought Skype in for $4.1 bln and speculation sell price varies $4-6 bln.
2 weeks ago share price was at 15 times cash flow which was extremely cheap. Recently Ebay performs very well and it is among the best in Nasdaq 100. Any other speculations or rumours could fuelled price in future.

Tech stocks in focus.

Nasdaq bear up against credit turmoil in early stage (mid of 2007) but January sell off hit this new economy index the most. On 17th of March after Bear & Stearns (BSC) bail out I posted that I expect rebound. Technically speaking double bottom has been formed. Market was oversold and quite resistant against all bad news coming to the street.







Last couple of days we could see nice short rally triggered mainly by tech companies. Index Nasdaq 100 has gained almost 10% during last 2 weeks. I've applied stock screen for all 100 shares included in index. Here you have leaders and laggards in % price change for past 2 weeks.


Company (Ticker) % price change

1. VERTEX PHARMACEUT (VRTX) 72,6
2. Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN) 27,6
3. Leap Wireless (LEAP) 25,2
4. Broadcom Corp (BRCM) 23,9
5. INTUITIVE SURG (ISRG) 23,9
6. eBay (EBAY) 21,8
7. Expeditors Intl. of Washington (EXPD) 21,1
8. Adobe Systems (ADBE) 20,9
9. EXPRESS SCRIPTS (ESRX) 20,3
10. Research In Motion (RIMM) 19,7

91. Liberty Global (LBTYA0 0,5
92. Joy Global (JOYG) -1,3
93. Marvell Technology (MRVL) -1,4
94. Sun Microsystems (JAVA) -1,5
95. Amgen (AMGN) -2,1
96. Citrix Systems (CTXS) -2,3
97. Applied Materials (AMAT) -2,7
98. AUTODESK (ADSK) -3,1
99. Garmin (GRMN) -4,2
100. APOLLO GP (APOL) -18,2