Stock screener for another emerging market - Romania.

I found this fundamental stock screener on official home page Bucharest Stock Exchange. You can sort Romanian shares based on fundamental indicators like P/BV, PER, Dividend yield, Book Value etc. I am giving you link again to left sidebar.

Two emerging markets, two EU newcomers - Romania, Bulgaria.

Both countries are showing excellent performance especially in recent 3 years. Stock index of Bucharest Stock Exchange BET has multiplied 4 times its value in last 3 and half years.

Even better performance has Bulgarian index SOFIX which due to growth in recent 6 months reached P/E valuation 28.

Bullish divergence for BMW - I missed this trade ..

During weekend I was searching some good pick for long term position. BMW was hot candidate. Price was dragged down by August sell off. Not even positive sentiment of last couple of days helped shares for reverse as weak USD lowered general expectation for BMW. Nevertheless strong bullish pattern (bullish divergence with RSI) has been created. You can see on technical chart. On Monday shortly after opening company announced that due to big demand factories are working on full capacities. Altogether shares has lifted more that 10% from 42 EUR to 46.7 EUR in 3 days !!!

New shares listed on secondary Czech stock market - including Deutsche Telekom.

Deutsche Telekom (the owner of T-Mobile) is now listed on second stock market (electronic exchange) in Czech Republic on RM-SYSTEM. Also new Czech names are coming like Zentiva, Erste Bank, ORCO, AAA AUTO and CME. In near future we can expect other big companies from abroad. All international shares are converted to Czech Koruna.

Global slowdown has no impact on Czech economy.

Czech National Bank announced yesterday that US slowdown has indirect impact on Czech economy. Even though US interest rates are going down and rates of Euro zone could be unchanged in Czech Republic we are still in time of increasing interest rates.

Weekly outlook. 24.9.

Monday
Economic: NA
Earnings: NA

Tuesday
Economic: Consumer Confidence (104.5), Existing Homes (5.55M)
Earnings: FactSet (FDS), Lennar (LEN), Red Hat (RHT), Resources Connect (RECN), Worthington (WOR)

Wednesday
Economic: Durable Orders (-2.5%), Weekly Crude
Earnings: Actuant (ATU), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Paychex (PAYX), Xyratex (XRTX), KB Home (KBH), Rite Aid (RAD)

Thursday
Economic: Weekly Claims (315K), New Homes (830K)
Earnings: Accenture (ACN), C & B (CBK), Cintas (CTAS), Global Pay (GPN), Jabil (JBL), Pall (PLL)

Friday
Economic: Inc & Spend (.4% .4%), Core PCE (.2%), Chicago PMI (53.5), Construction (-.1%), Michigan (84)

Stock screener for Western European stocks.

Today I found quite useful link sorting shares based on technical indicators (MACD, Momentum, RSI, Stochastic, GD crossover, Bollinger Bands, Parabolic). Technical screener is scanning following world indexes, ATX, ViDX, DAX, HDAX, MDAX, TecDAX, EuroStoxx50, SMI, FTSE100, DOW30, Nasdaq100, S&P100, Mib30, CAC40 and also major East Europe stocks.
Tool is provided by Raiffeisen Centrobank. I am giving you link to left sidebar section "Stock screeners" as usual.

British Pound dropped after credit turmoil spreads to UK.

Today I was looking for investment to diversify my portfolio. Last week majority of world currencies were bullish against USD. GBP improved significantly less than others and lost a lot against EUR after credit turmoil spreads to UK. Have a look to chart comparing 3M x-rates GBP/EUR and USD/EUR. Currency pair EUR/GBP is now 0.6977 with low volatility but crossing below support 0.6995-0.6980. Therefore there could be bullish pressure on GBP.

I found few put turbo investment certificates underlaying EUR/GBP with reasonable spread (up to 1%). DE000SDL74T3 (spread 0.79%, leverage 13.1), DE000TB8P9V4 (0.59%, 9.9).
And too turbo certificates with very strong leverage. DE000SDL1B21 (1.86%, 31.1), DE000SDL15Y6 (1.86%, 31.0),
All are listed on EUWAX.

Retrospection for last 2 IPO in Czech Republic.

Developer group ECM gained 60 mil. from IPO. First day trading closed 12% higher (CZK 1471) above issue price. Now, after 10 months, market price is 1650 CZK hitted by worldwide negative sentiment in sector. Shares reached all-time-high (CZK 2050) on April.

Textile producer Pegas has entered Czech stock market shortly after ECM and with IPO revenue 49 mil. EUR. Shares closed first day 6% higher at CZK 784. Current market price is CZK 750 with all-time-high also on April (CZK 820).

Both went public with small issue value as IPO AAA Auto did on Friday. Let's see first trading on Monday...

IPO - The share issue of AAA Auto Group in PSE.

AAA Auto underwrote its share on Friday and the share issue will be traded in Prague Stock Exchange from Monday 24/09. They went stagging 2 EUR per share meaning altogether 39 mil. EUR issue revenue. Company is going to use capital for expansions in other regions.

ETF speciality - agribusiness, environment, nuclear and alternative energy.

Van Eck Global has issued several ETF which are really unique and special. All of them are traded on AMEX.
Nuclear Energy ETF (NLR) having almost half exposure at uranium mining and plants structure with 40%. Holdings are Hitachi (HIT), Cameco (CCJ), USEC (USU). Agribusiness ETF (MOO) is different than Powershares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) as MOO is investing directly to world wide agriculture companies. DBA uses futures contracts for commodities. Big names are Potash, Deere (DCO), Komatsu. Environmental Services ETF (EVX) with following constituents: Veolia, Republic Services, Waste Management. Global Alternative Energy ETF (GEX) portfolio is composed mostly from European mid and small caps like Vestas, SolarWorld, First Solar.

How to invest in crude oil with ETF.

Crude oil is reaching all time high $82. Many of us are looking at some softening. However you are long or short with crude oil let me put some ETF in question.

Well known and most liquid are (OIL) and (USO) with one to one relation to crude oil price. If you are more bullish or bearish with some part of oil business maybe you pick some speciality from ETF like following:
SPDR Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (XES), iShares Oil Equipment & Services (IEZ), SPDR Oil and Gas Exploration & Drilling (XOP), iShares Oil and Gas Exploration & Production (IEO)

Of course all are short able. But if you have no shorting available there is still one inverse ETF UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) with almost double leverage.

Update for Czech Blue Chip stocks.

6% Unipetrol shares were bought by J&T. This belief could attract other investors. Unipetrol and CEZ are getting more attractive in line with rising oil and electricity prices. CEZ also finished reconstructions for 4 water power stations. There are positive news about coming IPO AAA Auto. They won law suit for usage its brand name in Slovakia.

Interest rate puzzle revealed.

FED Fund rate and discount rate down by .50% !!! With commentary that future action will be dependent on economic data and general outlook. Now we can see this cut as a fuel mainly for sectors, laggards last days like financial, lenders, home builders.
Before today's announcement I closed all shorts and I'm going to pick some long position tomorrow in pre-market.

Look at industries: leaders and laggards

Steel & Iron +6.70%
Industrial Metals & Minerals +5.98%
Surety & Title Insurance +5.89%
Cement +5.70%
Home Furnishing Stores +5.55%
Foreign Money Center Banks +5.47%
Building Materials Wholesale +5.46%

Manufactured Housing -1.55%
Computer Based Systems -0.40%
Meat Products -0.40%
Long Distance Carriers +0.10%
Aerospace/Defense - Major Diversified +0.14%
Processing Systems & Products +0.45%

Looking at FED decision about interest rate.

Anticipated decision about interest rate is coming today at 20:15 Czech time zone. Therefore I expect quiet trading on Prague Stock Exchange till today closing bell with gap for tomorrow's open. Futures are indicating that chances for rate cut are equal for 25 bp and 50 bp. Worsening US economy with credit turmoil are the main reason for cutting. Contrariwise inflation fear is still visible as we are still out of range 1-2%.

Weekly outlook - FED meeting.

Very interesting week ahead. On Tuesday FED meeting statement and also big financial names are reporting earnings.

Monday:
Economic: Empire Index (18)
Earnings: Adobe (ADBE)

Tuesday:
Economic: PPI & Core (-.1%, .1%), FOMC statement
Earnings: Lehman (LEH), Best Buy (BBY), AutoZone (AZO), Kroger (KR), Darden (DRI)

Wednesday:
Economic: Weekly Crude, CPI & Core (.0%, .2%), Housing & Permits (1.36M, 1.35M)
Earnings: AAR Corp (AIR), Dress Barn (DBRN), CarMax (KMX), General Mills (GIS), Morgan (MS)

Thursday:
Economic: Weekly Claims (320K), Leading Indicators (.0%), Philly Fed (2.0)
Earnings: Bear Stearns (BSC), Goldman (GS), FedEx (FDX), Progress Sftwr (PRGS), Nike (NKE), Oracle (ORCL), Circuit City (CC), Computer Sciences (CSC)

Friday:
Economic: NA

Russian Stock Market offers discounted valuation among emerging markets.

After a look to BRIC country's valuation based on PE ratio, Russia is the cheapest among them. Russia 12, China 14, India 18, Brazil 13. But PE ratio in Russia vary significantly in sectors. Telecommunication, financial with 20 after many many acquisitions and IPOs. Investors like them also because of low share to GDP comparing others developed countries. Those sectors are with dynamic growth. Materials, energy and oil & gas stay with lower P/E valuation. As they are highly dependent on government interventions and commodities prices.

Purely Russia focused ETF on NYSE is RSX. On French stock market ETF Russia (FR0010326140) is issued by Lyxor. EUWAX offers almost hundred investment certificates for Russian index RDX.

ETF - getting exposure from Central and Eastern Europe.

Let's have a look to ETF with some CEE holdings.
details at: http://www.stockweb.blogspot.com/

SPDR S&P Bric 40 ETF (BIK) - It has 25% share kept in Russian stocks (Gazprom, Lukoil), the rest are BRIC countries. Two thirds in energy and financial sectors. ETF is currently traded over net asset value (NAV).

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (EEM) - With 9% Russian stocks. More country (India, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Brazil, Taiwan) and sector diversified. Traded at fair value comparing to NAV.

SPDR S&P Emerging Markets ETF (GMM) - More or less the same instrument as EEM issued by State Street Global Advisor traded over NAV.

SPDR S&P Emerging Europe ETF (GUR) - Almost half in energy and quarter in financial shares. Strongly focused on Central and Eastern European countries. 58% in Russia, 14% Poland, 12% Turkey, 8% Hungary, 3% Czech Republic. Major holdings are Gazprom, Lukoil, Surgutneftegaz, MOL, OTP, CEZ. ETF price nowadays over NAV.

Market Vectors TR Russia ETF (RSX) - Purely Russian ETF following Russian stock market sector structure. 39% oil & gas, 19% iron & steel, 17% telecommunications, 8% financial. ETF price over NAV.

All mentioned ETF are marginable, for short selling. Options trade able for all except GUR. If you want to invest only into CEE stock markets with ETF the best and the only one option is GUR. Rather to use Closed End Funds on NYSE or even better investment certificates or other derivatives on EUWAX in Stuttgart or Vienna.

Emerging market Armenia - quiet but successful story.

In last years Ukraine and Kazakhstan have caught fire and many investors have taken opportunity and multiplied invested money. But forgotten emerging market Armenia passed last 6 years with booming economy.

more at: http://www.stockweb.blogspot.com/

The European Bank of Reconstruction and Development estimates some 75% of economic activity occurring in the private sector. The same number as for EU newcomers Bulgaria and Poland, and well above the 65% figure for Ukraine.

Since 2000, GDP has more than tripled in dollar terms with average growth rate 11.5% The fastest growing sector is construction. Agriculture and export are stagnating.Armenia Stock Exchange in Yerevan is very shallow with total capitalization of $66m for traded companies. It contains potential especially in banking sector. Stock of private-sector bank credit to GDP is 8.7%, giving Armenia the lowest private-sector credit /GDP ratio of any country in Eastern Europe. Also due to government's plan to conduct a pension reform could support certain insurance and banking stocks.

Booming economy have impact on currency (Armenian Dram) appreciation which is strengthening against major currencies more than Central European currencies.Of course, investment to Armenia with any derivatives or investment certificates is high risky.

Free financial newsletter provided by CFO.

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Long position with France ETF (EWQ).

Today one hour after US markets opened I bought EWQ for $35.1 (I'm quite lucky to pick up daily low). France is my favourite among Western European countries as they are going throught Sarkozy reforms. Also PE valuation 13 is below Euro Zone average. YTD performance equals zero for French index CAC-40 with 52 weeks 10% increase. The only Ireland ISEQ is worse.

PE ratios and dividend yield for Central and Eastern European Blue chip stocks.

I prepared table showing main fundamentals indicators (PE ratio and dividend yield) for major Central and Eastern European Blue chip companies.

Company	P/E	Dividend yield
CME	59.1	0
CEZ	19.7	1.8
Telefonica 02	21.1	16.8
Erste Bank	15.4	1.2
Unipetrol	19	0
KB	17.1	3.5
Philip Morris	14	6.2
Zentiva	20.5	1
OPG	8.7	0.9
ECM	7.9	0
Pegas Nonw.	12.6	0
Mag. Tel.	12.9	15.3
TSPA	14.6	6.4
MOL	10.3	2
PKN Orlen	10.3	0
PKO BP	20.7	1.9
PEO	20	3.8
OTP	12.4	1.6
Egis	10.5	0.5
Gedeon	17.5	1.9
KGHM	6.3	15.7
TVN	23.8	0.4
Lotos	7.5	0.5
PGN	27.3	2.6
Adidas	18	0.9
Bayer	23.1	1.8
E.ON	17.5	2.8
Siemens	23.9	1.7
Volkswagen	29.7	0.9

Weekly outlook. 10.9.

Not very interesting week ahead in terms of number of earnings reports and economic news. Only from personal interest I'm looking at Computer Sciences results as friend of mine is working for them.

Monday
Economic: Consumer Credit ($9.5B)
Earnings: Luluemon (LULU), Shuffle Master (SHFL), Take-Two (TTWO)

Tuesday
Economic: Trade Balance (-$59.0B)
Earnings: Syntax Brillian (BRLC)

Wednesday
Economic: Weekly Crude
Earnings: Sharper Image (SHRP), Aspen Tech (AZPN)

Thursday
Economic: Weekly Claims (330K), Treasury Budget (-$85.0B)
Earnings: Flow (FLOW), Pier 1 (PIR), Spartech (SEH), Computer Sciences (CSC), Foundry (FDRY), Pall Corp (PLL), Tektronix (TEK)

Friday
Economic: Import / Export, Current Account (-$190.0B), Retail Sales / ex Auto (.5%, .2%), Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (.3%, 82%), Biz Inv (.3%), Michigan (83.5)

Russia - Safe investments in credit market turmoil.

One of the stock markets which were unaffected by credit market turmoils is Russian. Russian shares benefited from many positive aspects. June GDP expansion 8.2% with overall Q2 growth 7.6%. This great number were fueled by a very strong investment increase (22.3%) and consumer spending. It is not surprising as real wages rose 17.5% and personal incomes 11.2%. Among major sectors expanding in first half are construction (24%), manufacturing (9.7%), retail (9.2%). Apart from rising domestic demand, Russian economy gained also from rising oil prices.

Baltic emerging markets - stock screener.

All three Baltic countries Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia (Tallinn Stock Exchange, Riga Stock Exchange and Vilnius Stock Exchange) are part of OMX. OMX is exchange for Nordic and Baltic countries. I found interesting link which is providing you main financial indicators about listed companies and main indices (OMXBBGI, OMXT, OMXR, OMXV). You can also see monthly the best performing and the worst performing stocks. Here is link.

Baltic stocks - Financial screener

GDP Growth in Czech Republic beats expectation.

Czech economy continues with fast growth. In last quarter (Q2) grew 6% when expectations were 5.8%. The highest increase we see with household spending (6.5%). High employment and wages growth help consumers to spend more. In euro area countries GDP growth is 2.5%, Slovakia with 9.4%, Hungary 6.9%.

Will FED cut rates during next meeting?

On 18th of September we have another FED meeting and many of us are expecting cutting interest rates. Some of us are looking at cutting even about 0.5%. I wouldn't have doubts about this action in case of former chairman Alan Greenspan. Let's see what Ben Bernanke will show us. Especially when US economy grow 4% in last quarter and still with inflation fear.
On left side bar you see poll about this. You can express your opinion. I chose Yes.

Next IPO at Prague Stock Exchange is OKD.

New World Resources (NWR) is going to issue initial public offering for OKD to increase capital about 300 mil. EUR. Emission should be together at Prague Stock Exchange and London Stock Exchange. Planned month is October or November this year. Managers are Patria Finance, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley. IPO NWR could be the biggest primary emission. Gained capital is expected to use for acquirement energy companies and coal mines in Poland and Ukraine.Director of Prague Stock Exchange informed that till end of 2007 we could see 5 IPOs.

Czech brokerages report year-to-year 83% growth.

Members of Czech Brokerages Association (CAOCP) increased annually trade volumes by 83% to 6.5 billion Euros a year. Main contribution is seen at foreign derivatives trading. Contrariwise domestic trades dropped. The only one member of London derivatives exchange Euronext.liffe company RSJ Invest improved sharply trading activity. The other segment with better result is Assets management with +13% rise.

Zagreb Stock Exchange (Croatia) - stock screener.

Today I provide you direct link which I found out on official page of Zagreb Stock Exchange. They provide free monthly reports about listed companies where you can see turnover and performance. Once per quarter they issue Trading summary pdf file also with financial indicators like PE ratio, EPS, dividend yield for Croatian stocks plus for main equity index CROBEX and bond index CROBIS. Here you have it (again I put it also to left side bar) :

Zagreb Stock Exchange financial screener

Middle Europe energy cooperation - Case CEZ vs. MOL.

Czech company CEZ and Hungarian MOL will join to build up two gas power stations. Except this CEZ informs to buy 10% share in MOL. Hungarian company is refusing this announcement. For CEZ investor it wouldn't be positive as share price will be highly dependent on MOL stocks. Situation is monitored by Polish PKN Orlen, by company trying to eliminate dependencies on Russian Druzba oil pipeline. PKN is looking at acquisition with Lotos.

What's going on in European energy sector?

In France, Suez and GDF (Gaz de France) announced merge and going to be third largest European utility company after Electricite de France and E.ON.Even thought fusion is always considered as a positive for industry but it is not that case now due to political interventions. First talks about the merge in question started in 2005 after Italian Enel expressed interest in Suez. French company owned by Italian? 80% state owned GDF acted with the offer.European Commission attempts for competitive environment look like not fulfilled.

Weekly outlook 4.9.

We have shorter week ahead. Generally with more upside signals rather than downside even if September is known for bearish tendency.
Tuesday
Economic: Construction Spend (-.1%), ISM (53), Truck / Auto (5.0M, 7.0M)
Earnings: Guess (GES), Donaldson (DCI), NCI Bldg (NCS)

Wednesday
Economic: Pending Home Sales, Weekly Crude, Fed’s Beige Book
Earnings: DSW (DSW), Martek (MATK), ADC Tele (ADCT), Imergent (IIG), J Crew (JCG)


Thursday
Economic: Weekly Claims (320K), Productivity (2.3%), ISM Services (54.5)
Earnings: Campbell’s (CPB), Korn/Ferry (KFY), UTI World (UTIW), Volt (VOL), Hovnanian (HOV), Nat Semi (NSM), Quiksilver (ZQK), Science Apps (SAI), Verifone (PAY)


Friday
Economic: NF Payrolls (120K), Unemployment (4.6%), Hourly E’s (.3%), Wholesale Inv (.5%)